Consumer confidence in March rose to a three-month high as consumers’ improved view of current business and labor market conditions outweighed weaker future expectations. Despite the increase, consumers remained concerned as inflation expectations surged to a seven-month high due to the Iran war and job worries from economic uncertainty. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing jobs as plentiful and hard-to-get, remained narrow and reached its second lowest level since February 2021.This is consistent with recent job reports showing fewer job openings and slower hiring.
The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index rose from 91.0 to 91.8 in March, the highest level this year. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and their expected situation. In March, the Present Situation Index increased 4.6 points from 118.7 to 123.3, the largest monthly increase since November 2024; the Expectation Situation Index dropped 1.7 points from 72.6 to 70.9. This is the fourteenth consecutive month for which the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year.
Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions improved in March. The share of respondents rating business conditions as “good” increased by 1.5 percentage points to 21.9%, while those claiming business conditions as “bad” fell by 2.7 percentage points to 16.3%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of the labor market were mixed in March. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” rose by 0.6 percentage points to 27.3%; meanwhile, those who saw jobs as “hard to get” increased by 0.5 percentage points to 21.5%, the highest level since February 2021.
Consumers were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve rose from 17.6% to 18.2%, while those expecting business conditions to deteriorate slightly increased from 21.2% to 21.3%. Similarly, expectations of employment over the next six months were more negative. The share of respondents expecting “more jobs” fell from 16% to 15.4%, and those anticipating “fewer jobs” rose by 1.7 percentage points to 27.9%.
The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home fell slightly to 5.7% in March. Of those, the shares planning to buy a newly constructed home and an existing home were unchanged at 0.7% and 2.6%, respectively. The remaining 2.4% were planning to buy a home but were undecided between new or existing homes.
